DOMINICAN REPUBLIC—2010-2030 Energy Forecast for the Dominican Republic

SUMMARY

Last month the National Energy Commission (“CNE”) published a study updating the Dominican Republic’s energy forecast for the 2010-2030 period. The study was prepared by the Argentinean Fundación Bariloche, which performed the same study for the country in their 2003 and 2008 editions, with technical-economic support from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). This forecast plays an essential ... (see full summary)

 
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Last month the National Energy Commission (“CNE”) published a study updating the Dominican Republic’s energy forecast for the 2010-2030 period. The study was prepared by the Argentinean Fundación Bariloche, which performed the same study for the country in their 2003 and 2008 editions, with technical-economic support from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). This forecast plays an essential role in the formulation of the Dominican Republic’s energy policy and investment decisions for the energy sector in the country. Among others, the study projects for the next 20 years that (i) in terms of net energy, the total final consumption of the country is expected to grow between 2.3% and 3.0% annually, (ii) the final electricity demand will grow between 3.2% and 4.2% annually, and (iii) natural gas would take between 3.3% and 4.6% of the country’s final energy consumption. A copy of the study, including an executive summary thereof, is available on the CNE’s website.

The study contains, first, results from a review of the country’s energy balances for the 1998-2011 period and an update of the National Energy Balance in terms of net and useful energy by sector, subsector, sources and uses for 2010. Then the study sets forth the main characteristics of the socioeconomic scenarios proposed for the 2010-2030 period, describing their general and specific aspects, performance of the world economy and inclusion of the Dominican Republic in such context. Next, the study sets forth the main characteristics of the energy scenarios for the 2010-2030 period, which were prepared in line with the socioeconomic scenarios developed by the study. The study contemplates two potential energy scenarios for the 2010-2030 period, a Trend Scenario and an Alternative Scenario. Finally, the study describes and analyzes the results set forth in the forecast, which were prepared using econometric methods and the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System) analytical model, and provides a series of conclusions.

Below are some highlights and conclusions set forth in the study:

  1. Energy Supply Evolution: The study conducted a comprehensive review of the National Energy Balances (BEN) for the 1998-2011 period. Among the results set forth for such period are
    • An evolution of the total energy supply, which grew at an average cumulative annual rate of 1.5% during such period, reaching 8,172 kToe (thousands of tonnes of oil equivalent) in 2011.
    • Energy imports accounted for 87.8% of domestic energy supply in 2011, while the remaining 12.2% was attributed to domestic production. This composition of the domestic supply remained roughly the same ??throughout the period analyzed.
    • Imports are mainly composed of oil and oil products, and, to a lesser extent, natural gas and coal.
    • Domestic production of primary energy is composed exclusively of renewable, hydropower, wood, bagasse and other residual products, wind and solar sources.
    • Despite the significant increase in the import of natural gas and coal from 2002 onward, oil products still have the most weight, accounting for 58% of total imports in...

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